A brief analysis of seamless carbon steel pipe and welded pipe in China at the end of the year

A brief analysis of seamless carbon steel pipe and welded pipe in China at the end of the year

Looking back at China's domestic carbon steel welded pipe and welded pipe market from January to November 2023, the price as a whole shows a trend of rising and then falling, and then recovering and strengthening, especially after June, the price of welded pipe has been in a narrow range of fluctuations. Although the price of welded pipe in the market has risen in recent years, the increase is limited, and traders' profits are meager. The market entered the winter, the pipe factory inventory fell to the lowest level in history, and the price of welded pipes was supported, but by the seasonal impact, downstream demand contracted, and the market trend of "price without market" gradually emerged.

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1. Market price
Looking back at the welded pipe market in 2023, the price as a whole shows a trend of rising and then falling, and then shaking and strengthening. In the early first quarter, affected by the optimization of the epidemic policy and environmental protection policies, the market expectation is strong, the market supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced, the average price of welded pipes in the country shows a trend of rising and shaking, and the welded pipe price appears the highest point in mid-March. However, the highest price increase from the beginning of the year to March was 220 yuan/ton, and the average monthly increase was less than 100 yuan. Since mid-March in the second quarter, domestic welded pipe prices have entered a rapid decline, and under the rapid "collapse" of the cost end, the negative market feedback has amplified, and the welded pipe price has fallen from mid-March to the end of May, a drop of 529 yuan/ton. Third quarter welded pipe prices in June began to build bottom repair, manufacturers gradually slow down the pace of production, pipe factory inventory and social inventory have taken the initiative to decline, risk awareness dominated the market, with the introduction of macro policies in July, the market welded pipe prices have rebounded, but the range is limited, more performance for the emotional repair rebound, the market is looking forward to the autumn season again disappointed. In the fourth quarter, under the continuous force of macro policies, the market is expected to pull up the spot price again, although the "silver ten" market performance is generally, but under the strong expectation, the market welded pipe price continues to follow the raw materials. hot rolled seamless steel pipe.However, the market spot price increase is much lower than the increase of raw materials and pipe plant, downstream demand for high-price resources acceptance is not high, welded pipe prices have been in a range of fluctuations, in the historical price line price along the lower.

Second, market mentality
Steel mills: Although the recent profit of steel mills has rebounded, the overall profit rate of steel mills is still less than 40%, and more than half of steel mills are still in a state of loss. Under the good macro expectations and high raw material costs, steel mills are profit-oriented, low inventory is supported, and the trend is pulling up as the path, and steel prices in December are easy to rise and difficult to fall.
Pipe factory: The overall pressure of the pipe factory is small, the immediate profit of carbon steel welded pipe and galvanized round pipe has shrunk, but the overall profit is OK, under this background, the elasticity of the pipe factory is large, and it is mostly affected by the trend of raw materials.
Traders: Affected by market competition and poor demand, even if the market price is high, traders shipping prices are low, this is because when the price rises, the market price increase is less than the increase of the factory, traders are mainly to thin profits or even upside down shipments, but if the later steel price correction, traders are willing to support the price is strong, the market welded pipe price exploration space is limited.
Terminal downstream: The winter has arrived, the downstream construction has gradually decreased, especially in the north, the impact of low temperature is more serious, and the capital constraint is still the main reason for the lack of downstream demand. According to market feedback, the downstream funds are not in place, the current construction site less to catch up with the phenomenon, more is to choose the time, choose the opportunity to rush to work, the downstream is also not high acceptance of the current high price resources, the price back to the low level and then purchase is one of the main mentality of the downstream.

Iii. Summary
From January to November 2023, the welded pipe price as a whole shows a trend of rising and then falling, and then repairing the shock is strong, and the current welded pipe price is close to the level of the same period last year, and is in the average position. At present, although the market has entered the off-season, the demand has contracted, but there is still a certain toughness, the superimposed market supply is tight, and the fundamental contradiction between supply and demand is relatively moderate. The main factor of the price of welded pipe is still the macro favorable policy stimulus and cost center rise, the market is expected to be released under the favorable policy has been built, and gradually enhanced, superimposed at the end of the year and winter storage, profit is the common demand of the industry, so in December the national welded pipe price or will easily rise difficult to fall.